Back to MarketsSegment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4
StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
Bitcoin Outlook: Low-Confidence Bullish Observation With Stale US Market Context
5D: Bullish20D: Bullish
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a bullish 5D signal and a bullish 20D signal for BTC-USD. The latest 20D return is +10.6%, price is above the 50D average but below the 200D average, and RSI is 59.7. Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
Latest Close
78,269.70
BTC-USD
Latest Date
2026-05-03
Crypto Day
Market State
Risk On
Trend
Short Term Recovery
Stale US Market Context: 2 days.
5D
Model Probability
43.9%
Low confidence
Bullish43.9%
Neutral20.2%
Bearish35.9%
Reliability
Low Reliability
0.0
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Public Confidence Cap: 44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only. Treat it as low-confidence market outlook context.
Reliability Reasons
Weak Asset Class From V03Weak Regime From V03Low Probability EdgeLow Task Balanced AccuracyLow Segment Balanced Accuracy
20D
Model Probability
42.7%
Low confidence
Bullish42.7%
Neutral29.6%
Bearish27.7%
Reliability
Low Reliability
0.0
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Public Confidence Cap: 44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only. Treat it as low-confidence market outlook context.
Reliability Reasons
Crypto 20d CautionWeak Asset Class From V03Weak Regime From V03Raw Probability Was DeflatedLow Probability Edge
Key Signals
Current heuristic state: risk-on.
strong 20D momentum (+10.6% over 20D).
Price is -6.6% versus the 200D average.
20D relative return is +0.7% ahead of SPY.
5D baseline probability leader: bullish (43.9%).
20D baseline probability leader: bullish (42.7%).
Risk Flags
US market context is stale by 2 days.
At least one horizon has low model confidence.
Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only.
Market Features
1D
+0.1%
5D
+1.2%
20D
+10.6%
60D
+14.6%
RSI
59.7
20D Ann. Vol
36.1%
Vs 50D Avg
+8.0%
Vs 200D Avg
-6.6%
Source Artifacts
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json