Back to MarketsSegment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4
StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
Ethereum Outlook: Low-Confidence Bullish Observation With Stale US Market Context
5D: Bullish20D: Bullish
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a bullish 5D signal and a bullish 20D signal for ETH-USD. The latest 20D return is +5.2%, price is above the 50D average but below the 200D average, and RSI is 45.8. Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
Latest Close
2,305.31
ETH-USD
Latest Date
2026-05-03
Crypto Day
Market State
Risk On
Trend
Short Term Recovery
Stale US Market Context: 2 days.
5D
Model Probability
39.7%
Low confidence
Bullish39.7%
Neutral23.0%
Bearish37.2%
Reliability
Low Reliability
0.0
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Public Confidence Cap: 44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only. Treat it as low-confidence market outlook context.
Reliability Reasons
Weak Asset Class From V03Weak Regime From V03Raw Probability Was DeflatedLow Probability EdgeLow Task Balanced Accuracy
20D
Model Probability
43.7%
Low confidence
Bullish43.7%
Neutral27.8%
Bearish28.5%
Reliability
Low Reliability
0.0
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Public Confidence Cap: 44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only. Treat it as low-confidence market outlook context.
Reliability Reasons
Crypto 20d CautionWeak Asset Class From V03Weak Regime From V03Low Probability EdgeLow Task Balanced Accuracy
Key Signals
Current heuristic state: risk-on.
positive 20D momentum (+5.2% over 20D).
Price is -15.4% versus the 200D average.
20D relative return is -4.7% behind SPY.
5D baseline probability leader: bullish (39.7%).
20D baseline probability leader: bullish (43.7%).
Risk Flags
US market context is stale by 2 days.
At least one horizon has low model confidence.
Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only.
Market Features
1D
+0.4%
5D
+0.1%
20D
+5.2%
60D
+16.3%
RSI
45.8
20D Ann. Vol
50.9%
Vs 50D Avg
+4.3%
Vs 200D Avg
-15.4%
Source Artifacts
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json