Back to MarketsSegment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4
StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
SMH Outlook: Bearish Watch With Very Strong 20D Momentum
5D: Bearish20D: Neutral
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a bearish 5D signal and a neutral 20D signal for SMH. The latest 20D return is +30.0%, price is above the 50D and 200D averages, and RSI is 85.0. Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
Latest Close
509.82
SMH
Latest Date
2026-05-01
Market Day
Market State
Risk On
Trend
Above 50d And 200d
5D
Model Probability
36.6%
Low confidence
Bullish34.1%
Neutral29.3%
Bearish36.6%
Reliability
Standard
84.6
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 64.0%
Reliability Reasons
Low Probability Edge
20D
Model Probability
42.6%
Low confidence
Bullish24.1%
Neutral42.6%
Bearish33.3%
Reliability
Low Reliability
26.2
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Public Confidence Cap: 44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only. Treat it as low-confidence market outlook context.
Reliability Reasons
Weak Asset Class From V03Low Probability EdgeLow Segment Balanced AccuracyThin Segment Edge
Key Signals
Current heuristic state: risk-on.
very strong 20D momentum (+30.0% over 20D).
Price is +40.8% versus the 200D average.
20D relative return is +20.1% ahead of SPY.
5D baseline probability leader: bearish (36.6%).
20D baseline probability leader: neutral (42.6%).
Risk Flags
RSI is elevated at 85.0; avoid overstating upside.
5D and 20D model labels diverge; present as mixed-horizon outlook.
At least one horizon has low model confidence.
Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only.
Market Features
1D
+0.6%
5D
+0.7%
20D
+30.0%
60D
+33.5%
RSI
85.0
20D Ann. Vol
29.0%
Vs 50D Avg
+20.7%
Vs 200D Avg
+40.8%
Source Artifacts
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json