Back to MarketsSegment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4
StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
QQQ Outlook: Neutral Watch With Very Strong 20D Momentum
5D: Neutral20D: Neutral
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a neutral 5D signal and a neutral 20D signal for QQQ. The latest 20D return is +15.2%, price is above the 50D and 200D averages, and RSI is 83.1. Reliability layer keeps this as a watch signal. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
Latest Close
674.15
QQQ
Latest Date
2026-05-01
Market Day
Market State
Risk On
Trend
Above 50d And 200d
5D
Model Probability
46.6%
Low confidence
Bullish27.1%
Neutral46.6%
Bearish26.3%
Reliability
Standard
92.6
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 64.0%
20D
Model Probability
51.2%
Low confidence
Bullish22.1%
Neutral51.2%
Bearish26.7%
Reliability
Watch
49.2
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 52.0%
Reliability Reasons
Thin Segment Edge
Key Signals
Current heuristic state: risk-on.
very strong 20D momentum (+15.2% over 20D).
Price is +11.8% versus the 200D average.
20D relative return is +5.4% ahead of SPY.
5D baseline probability leader: neutral (46.6%).
20D baseline probability leader: neutral (51.2%).
Risk Flags
RSI is elevated at 83.1; avoid overstating upside.
At least one horizon has low model confidence.
Market Features
1D
+1.0%
5D
+1.5%
20D
+15.2%
60D
+11.4%
RSI
83.1
20D Ann. Vol
15.4%
Vs 50D Avg
+10.1%
Vs 200D Avg
+11.8%
Source Artifacts
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json