Back to MarketsSegment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4
StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
GLD Outlook: Bullish Watch With Mild 20D Pressure
5D: Bullish20D: Neutral
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a bullish 5D signal and a neutral 20D signal for GLD. The latest 20D return is -1.5%, price is below the 50D average but above the 200D average, and RSI is 41.8. Reliability layer keeps this as a watch signal. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
Latest Close
423.18
GLD
Latest Date
2026-05-01
Market Day
Market State
Risk Off
Trend
Short Term Pressure
5D
Model Probability
38.9%
Low confidence
Bullish38.9%
Neutral30.0%
Bearish31.1%
Reliability
Standard
84.6
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 64.0%
Reliability Reasons
Low Probability Edge
20D
Model Probability
36.7%
Low confidence
Bullish28.8%
Neutral36.7%
Bearish34.5%
Reliability
Watch
45.2
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 52.0%
Reliability Reasons
Raw Probability Was DeflatedLow Probability Edge
Key Signals
Current heuristic state: risk-off.
mild 20D pressure (-1.5% over 20D).
Price is +8.1% versus the 200D average.
20D relative return is -11.3% behind SPY.
5D baseline probability leader: bullish (38.9%).
20D baseline probability leader: neutral (36.7%).
Risk Flags
63D drawdown remains material at -13.6%.
5D and 20D model labels diverge; present as mixed-horizon outlook.
At least one horizon has low model confidence.
Market Features
1D
-0.1%
5D
-2.3%
20D
-1.5%
60D
-6.8%
RSI
41.8
20D Ann. Vol
19.7%
Vs 50D Avg
-4.7%
Vs 200D Avg
+8.1%
Source Artifacts
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json