Back to MarketsSegment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4
StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
IWM Outlook: Neutral Watch With Strong 20D Momentum
5D: Neutral20D: Neutral
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a neutral 5D signal and a neutral 20D signal for IWM. The latest 20D return is +11.1%, price is above the 50D and 200D averages, and RSI is 72.6. Reliability layer keeps this as a watch signal. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
Latest Close
279.28
IWM
Latest Date
2026-05-01
Market Day
Market State
Risk On
Trend
Above 50d And 200d
5D
Model Probability
40.3%
Low confidence
Bullish32.7%
Neutral40.3%
Bearish27.0%
Reliability
Standard
84.6
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 64.0%
Reliability Reasons
Low Probability Edge
20D
Model Probability
51.5%
Low confidence
Bullish27.5%
Neutral51.5%
Bearish21.0%
Reliability
Watch
49.2
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 52.0%
Reliability Reasons
Thin Segment Edge
Key Signals
Current heuristic state: risk-on.
strong 20D momentum (+11.1% over 20D).
Price is +13.0% versus the 200D average.
20D relative return is +1.3% ahead of SPY.
5D baseline probability leader: neutral (40.3%).
20D baseline probability leader: neutral (51.5%).
Risk Flags
At least one horizon has low model confidence.
Market Features
1D
+0.5%
5D
+1.0%
20D
+11.1%
60D
+7.4%
RSI
72.6
20D Ann. Vol
16.9%
Vs 50D Avg
+7.6%
Vs 200D Avg
+13.0%
Source Artifacts
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json