Back to MarketsSegment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4
StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
TLT Outlook: Neutral Baseline Signal With Mild 20D Pressure
5D: Neutral20D: Neutral
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a neutral 5D signal and a neutral 20D signal for TLT. The latest 20D return is -1.0%, price is below the 50D and 200D averages, and RSI is 41.5. Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
Latest Close
85.61
TLT
Latest Date
2026-05-01
Market Day
Market State
Neutral
Trend
Below 50d And 200d
5D
Model Probability
62.3%
High confidence
Bullish22.1%
Neutral62.3%
Bearish15.6%
Reliability
Standard
87.6
Signal Strength
Model Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 64.0%
Reliability Reasons
Thin Segment Edge
20D
Model Probability
45.0%
Low confidence
Bullish30.9%
Neutral45.0%
Bearish24.1%
Reliability
Low Reliability
39.2
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Public Confidence Cap: 45.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only. Treat it as low-confidence market outlook context.
Reliability Reasons
Weak Asset Class From V03Low Segment Balanced Accuracy
Key Signals
Current heuristic state: neutral.
mild 20D pressure (-1.0% over 20D).
Price is -1.0% versus the 200D average.
20D relative return is -10.9% behind SPY.
5D baseline probability leader: neutral (62.3%).
20D baseline probability leader: neutral (45.0%).
Risk Flags
At least one horizon has low model confidence.
Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only.
Market Features
1D
+0.4%
5D
-0.9%
20D
-1.0%
60D
+0.0%
RSI
41.5
20D Ann. Vol
6.7%
Vs 50D Avg
-1.4%
Vs 200D Avg
-1.0%
Source Artifacts
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json