Back to MarketsSegment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4
StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
XLK Outlook: Neutral Watch With Very Strong 20D Momentum
5D: Neutral20D: Neutral
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a neutral 5D signal and a neutral 20D signal for XLK. The latest 20D return is +19.0%, price is above the 50D and 200D averages, and RSI is 81.6. Reliability layer keeps this as a watch signal. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
Latest Close
161.87
XLK
Latest Date
2026-05-01
Market Day
Market State
Risk On
Trend
Above 50d And 200d
5D
Model Probability
35.6%
Low confidence
Bullish32.2%
Neutral35.6%
Bearish32.2%
Reliability
Standard
84.6
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 64.0%
Reliability Reasons
Low Probability Edge
20D
Model Probability
50.1%
Low confidence
Bullish25.3%
Neutral50.1%
Bearish24.6%
Reliability
Watch
49.2
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Public Confidence Cap: 52.0%
Reliability Reasons
Thin Segment Edge
Key Signals
Current heuristic state: risk-on.
very strong 20D momentum (+19.0% over 20D).
Price is +15.0% versus the 200D average.
20D relative return is +9.1% ahead of SPY.
5D baseline probability leader: neutral (35.6%).
20D baseline probability leader: neutral (50.1%).
Risk Flags
RSI is elevated at 81.6; avoid overstating upside.
At least one horizon has low model confidence.
Market Features
1D
+1.5%
5D
+1.0%
20D
+19.0%
60D
+17.3%
RSI
81.6
20D Ann. Vol
19.5%
Vs 50D Avg
+13.1%
Vs 200D Avg
+15.0%
Source Artifacts
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json