StatFC Markets - Market Data Intelligence
Mixed Market Outlook With Selective Risk-On Pockets
SPY is neutral on the primary 5D card with +9.9% 20D return. QQQ relative strength is +5.4% versus SPY. SMH remains the strongest focus asset at +30.0% over 20D. BTC and ETH use crypto-day data while US market context is flagged stale when applicable. Research signals only. Not investment advice. Markets involve risk.
Latest US market day
2026-05-01
Latest Crypto Date
2026-05-03
Model Status
Research Baseline
stale-context flags
2
BTC-USD, ETH-USD
SPY
Model Signal
5D
57.6%
20D
52.0%
20D Neutral+9.9%
WatchConfidence Cap: 52.0%
QQQ
Watch Signal
5D
46.6%
20D
51.2%
20D Neutral+15.2%
WatchConfidence Cap: 52.0%
SMH
Watch Signal
5D
36.6%
20D
42.6%
20D Neutral+30.0%
Low ReliabilityConfidence Cap: 44.0%
BTC-USD
Observation Only
5D
43.9%
20D
42.7%
20D Bullish+10.6%
Low ReliabilityConfidence Cap: 44.0%
ETH-USD
Observation Only
5D
39.7%
20D
43.7%
20D Bullish+5.2%
Low ReliabilityConfidence Cap: 44.0%
Key Signals
SPY: Current heuristic state: risk-on.
SPY: strong 20D momentum (+9.9% over 20D).
QQQ: Current heuristic state: risk-on.
Risk Flags
SPY: RSI is elevated at 79.3; avoid overstating upside.
SPY: At least one horizon has low model confidence.
QQQ: RSI is elevated at 83.1; avoid overstating upside.
SPY 5D
Model Probability
57.6%
Moderate probability lead (57.6%); test balanced accuracy 41.7%.
Bullish25.8%
Neutral57.6%
Bearish16.6%
Reliability Grade
Standard
Signal Strength
Model Signal
Reliability Score
92.6
Confidence Cap
64.0%
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 41.7%
SPY 20D
Model Probability
52.0%
Watch signal after reliability checks (52.0%); use as context.
Bullish23.7%
Neutral52.0%
Bearish24.3%
Reliability Grade
Watch
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Reliability Score
49.2
Confidence Cap
52.0%
Reliability Thin Segment Edge
Thin Segment Edge
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 37.6%
QQQ 5D
Model Probability
46.6%
Watch signal after reliability checks (46.6%); use as context.
Bullish27.1%
Neutral46.6%
Bearish26.3%
Reliability Grade
Standard
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Reliability Score
92.6
Confidence Cap
64.0%
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 41.7%
QQQ 20D
Model Probability
51.2%
Watch signal after reliability checks (51.2%); use as context.
Bullish22.1%
Neutral51.2%
Bearish26.7%
Reliability Grade
Watch
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Reliability Score
49.2
Confidence Cap
52.0%
Reliability Thin Segment Edge
Thin Segment Edge
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 37.6%
SMH 5D
Model Probability
36.6%
Watch signal after reliability checks (36.6%); use as context.
Bullish34.1%
Neutral29.3%
Bearish36.6%
Reliability Grade
Standard
Signal Strength
Watch Signal
Reliability Score
84.6
Confidence Cap
64.0%
Low Probability Edge - Reliability Low Probability Edge
Low Probability Edge
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 41.7%
SMH 20D
Model Probability
42.6%
Observation-only signal after reliability checks (42.6%); avoid conviction wording.
Bullish24.1%
Neutral42.6%
Bearish33.3%
Reliability Grade
Low Reliability
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Reliability Score
26.2
Confidence Cap
44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only; show it as a low-confidence market outlook, not a promoted prediction.
Validation Weak Asset Class Segment - Low Probability Edge
Weak Asset Class From V03 - Low Probability Edge
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 37.6%
BTC-USD 5D
Model Probability
43.9%
Observation-only signal after reliability checks (43.9%); avoid conviction wording.
Bullish43.9%
Neutral20.2%
Bearish35.9%
Reliability Grade
Low Reliability
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Reliability Score
0.0
Confidence Cap
44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only; show it as a low-confidence market outlook, not a promoted prediction.
Validation Weak Asset Class Segment - Validation Weak Regime Segment
Weak Asset Class From V03 - Weak Regime From V03
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 33.6%
BTC-USD 20D
Model Probability
42.7%
Observation-only signal after reliability checks (42.7%); avoid conviction wording.
Bullish42.7%
Neutral29.6%
Bearish27.7%
Reliability Grade
Low Reliability
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Reliability Score
0.0
Confidence Cap
44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only; show it as a low-confidence market outlook, not a promoted prediction.
Crypto 20d Requires Extra Caution - Validation Weak Asset Class Segment
Crypto 20d Caution - Weak Asset Class From V03
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 33.3%
ETH-USD 5D
Model Probability
39.7%
Observation-only signal after reliability checks (39.7%); avoid conviction wording.
Bullish39.7%
Neutral23.0%
Bearish37.2%
Reliability Grade
Low Reliability
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Reliability Score
0.0
Confidence Cap
44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only; show it as a low-confidence market outlook, not a promoted prediction.
Validation Weak Asset Class Segment - Validation Weak Regime Segment
Weak Asset Class From V03 - Weak Regime From V03
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 33.6%
ETH-USD 20D
Model Probability
43.7%
Observation-only signal after reliability checks (43.7%); avoid conviction wording.
Bullish43.7%
Neutral27.8%
Bearish28.5%
Reliability Grade
Low Reliability
Signal Strength
Observation Only
Reliability Score
0.0
Confidence Cap
44.0%
Reliability layer marks this horizon as observation only; show it as a low-confidence market outlook, not a promoted prediction.
Crypto 20d Requires Extra Caution - Validation Weak Asset Class Segment
Crypto 20d Caution - Weak Asset Class From V03
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4test bal. acc 33.3%
Signal Matrix
| Asset | 5D Outlook | 20D Outlook | Reliability Grade | Signal Strength | Trend | Volatility | Risk Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500 ETF | 5D Neutral57.6% / Medium confidence | 20D Neutral52.0% / Low confidence | Standard / Watch | Model SignalWatch Signal | Above 50d And 200d | 11.9% | SPY: RSI is elevated at 79.3; avoid overstating upside. |
| QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF | 5D Neutral46.6% / Low confidence | 20D Neutral51.2% / Low confidence | Standard / Watch | Watch SignalWatch Signal | Above 50d And 200d | 15.4% | QQQ: RSI is elevated at 83.1; avoid overstating upside. |
| IWM Russell 2000 ETF | 5D Neutral40.3% / Low confidence | 20D Neutral51.5% / Low confidence | Standard / Watch | Watch SignalWatch Signal | Above 50d And 200d | 16.9% | IWM: At least one horizon has low model confidence. |
| XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR | 5D Neutral35.6% / Low confidence | 20D Neutral50.1% / Low confidence | Standard / Watch | Watch SignalWatch Signal | Above 50d And 200d | 19.5% | XLK: RSI is elevated at 81.6; avoid overstating upside. |
| SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 5D Bearish36.6% / Low confidence | 20D Neutral42.6% / Low confidence | Standard / Low Reliability | Watch SignalObservation Only | Above 50d And 200d | 29.0% | SMH: RSI is elevated at 85.0; avoid overstating upside. |
| TLT Long Treasury ETF | 5D Neutral62.3% / High confidence | 20D Neutral45.0% / Low confidence | Standard / Low Reliability | Model SignalObservation Only | Below 50d And 200d | 6.7% | TLT: At least one horizon has low model confidence. |
| GLD Gold ETF | 5D Bullish38.9% / Low confidence | 20D Neutral36.7% / Low confidence | Standard / Watch | Watch SignalWatch Signal | Short Term Pressure | 19.7% | GLD: 63D drawdown remains material at -13.6%. |
| BTC-USD Bitcoin | 5D Bullish43.9% / Low confidence | 20D Bullish42.7% / Low confidence | Low Reliability / Low Reliability | Observation OnlyObservation Only | Short Term Recovery | 36.1% | BTC-USD: US market context is stale by 2 days. |
| ETH-USD Ethereum | 5D Bullish39.7% / Low confidence | 20D Bullish43.7% / Low confidence | Low Reliability / Low Reliability | Observation OnlyObservation Only | Short Term Recovery | 50.9% | ETH-USD: US market context is stale by 2 days. |
Key Signals
SPY: Current heuristic state: risk-on.
SPY: strong 20D momentum (+9.9% over 20D).
QQQ: Current heuristic state: risk-on.
QQQ: very strong 20D momentum (+15.2% over 20D).
SMH: Current heuristic state: risk-on.
SMH: very strong 20D momentum (+30.0% over 20D).
BTC-USD: Current heuristic state: risk-on.
BTC-USD: strong 20D momentum (+10.6% over 20D).
ETH-USD: Current heuristic state: risk-on.
ETH-USD: positive 20D momentum (+5.2% over 20D).
Risk Flags
SPY: RSI is elevated at 79.3; avoid overstating upside.
SPY: At least one horizon has low model confidence.
QQQ: RSI is elevated at 83.1; avoid overstating upside.
QQQ: At least one horizon has low model confidence.
SMH: RSI is elevated at 85.0; avoid overstating upside.
SMH: 5D and 20D model labels diverge; present as mixed-horizon outlook.
BTC-USD: US market context is stale by 2 days.
BTC-USD: At least one horizon has low model confidence.
ETH-USD: US market context is stale by 2 days.
ETH-USD: At least one horizon has low model confidence.
BTC / ETH Market Outlook
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a bullish 5D signal and a bullish 20D signal for BTC-USD. The latest 20D return is +10.6%, price is above the 50D average but below the 200D average, and RSI is 59.7. Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
5D
43.9%
Bullish
20D
42.7%
Bullish
Crypto uses natural-day data. US market context is stale by 2 days.
ETH-USD
Ethereum
Segment-Aware Reliability Baseline v0.4 shows a bullish 5D signal and a bullish 20D signal for ETH-USD. The latest 20D return is +5.2%, price is above the 50D average but below the 200D average, and RSI is 45.8. Reliability layer marks at least one horizon as observation-only. Use this as market-outlook context, not advice.
5D
39.7%
Bullish
20D
43.7%
Bullish
Crypto uses natural-day data. US market context is stale by 2 days.
Data Freshness
Latest US market day
2026-05-01
US context is gated by SPY market date
Latest Crypto Date
2026-05-03
BTC/ETH can update on weekends
Stale Context Assets
BTC-USD, ETH-USD
Audit Trail
Model-data public snapshot loaded
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json
Prediction JSON loaded
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
Daily market brief generated
daily_market_brief.json
Source Artifacts
Data Caveat
Current data uses yfinance prototype data for research validation only.
Predictions
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_predictions.json
Snapshot
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_model_data_public_snapshot.json
Model Summary
/mnt/d/Qlib/reports/2026-05-03/daily_prediction_reliability_v04_summary.json
Ranked Research Signals
Highest Bullish 5D
CL=FBullish 45.9%
ARKKBullish 45.6%
SLVBullish 45.3%
BTC-USDBullish 43.9%
Highest Bearish 20D
SLVBearish 41.6%
Daily Report Routes
Suggested internal routes from the daily market brief contract.
US Market Outlook 2026-05-01: Mixed Market Outlook With Selective Risk-On Pockets
/daily/us-market-outlook-2026-05-01
Daily US market dashboard built from snapshot features and baseline model probabilities.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Outlook 2026-05-03
/daily/bitcoin-ethereum-outlook-2026-05-03
Crypto-day BTC/ETH dashboard with stale US market-context flags when applicable.
Market Intelligence Report 2026-05-01
/reports/market/2026-05-01
Combined market, sector, rates, gold, and crypto model-intelligence report.
Premium Report Access
Market reports will package the daily dashboard into reviewable research material: model probability, data freshness, risk flags, and audit trail. This is not investment advice.
Allowed language: research signal, market outlook, model probability, data-driven forecast, confidence.
Avoid: guaranteed prediction, investment advice, sure win, buy/sell instruction.
Avoid: guaranteed prediction, investment advice, sure win, buy/sell instruction.